Guiding decision makers toward a more secure Asia by 2049
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China's Military Developments and the U.S.-Japan Alliance
The Project 2049 Institute understands the critical role of the U.S.-Japan alliance in the evolving security environment in the Asia-Pacific region. Key among several trends is the accelerating development of the People’s Liberation Army’s programs and capabilities, which have expanded rapidly over the past two decades. To foster discussion and learning on these topics among U.S. and Japanese experts, the Project 2049 Institute launched a program in 2015 to focus on China's growing military power and its implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Friday, March 20, 2015
9 AM to 2:30 PM
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Choate Room
1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036
The security environment in the Asia Pacific region is evolving quickly. Key among several trends is the accelerating development of the People's Liberation Army's programs and capabilities, which have expanded rapidly over the past two decades. While the People's Republic of China (PRC) insists that its military advancements are peaceful in nature, U.S. allies and partners in the region continue to question Beijing's intentions in light of China's various territorial and historical disputes with its neighbors. As East Asia experiences shifts in the security and political landscape, the U.S.-Japan alliance continues to play a critical role toward maintaining peace and stability in the region.
This conference brought together Japanese scholars and American experts to discuss the PRC's overall military strategy and capabilities, assess its future programs and plans, and discuss the implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance and the region.
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
5:00 to 7:00 PM
Location: UC San Diego, Malamud Conference Room at the Weaver Center
10111 North Torrey Pines Road, San Diego, CA 92093
As the world tries to make sense of China’s rise — both militarily and economically — many questions remain about the country’s regional strategy. This panel of Japanese and United States experts explored the development of China’s military power, as well as what this means for the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance.
A multicity program, the Japan scholar exchange is an important component that brings China specialists from Japan to the United States to present at public conferences, private roundtables, and participate in meetings with U.S. interlocutors from the policymaking community, including Congressional offices, State Department, Pentagon, think tanks, and academic institutions. These exchanges offer Japanese scholars the opportunity to dialogue with American counterparts on issues related to the alliance as well as China’s military progress and regional interests. In March 2015, the following scholars participated in either one or both of the Washington, DC and/or San Diego program.
Mr. Kotani is a Senior Fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA). He is also a visiting associate professor at Hosei University and Kyushu University. In addition, he is a senior nonresident research fellow at the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS), and an international advisor to the Project 2049 Institute. He was a visiting scholar at CSIS Japan Chair and US-Japan Center at Vanderbilt University. His research focus is the US-Japan alliance and maritime security. He received a security studies fellowship from the RIPS in 2006-2008. He won the 2003 Japanese Defense Minister Prize. He has published numerous articles both in English and Japanese, and his recent English publications include "The Senkaku Islands and the US-Japan Alliance" (Project 2049 Institute, March 2013), and "US-Japan Joint Maritime Strategy: Balancing the Rise of Maritime China" (CSIS, March 2014). Tetsuo Kotani has a M.A. from Doshisha University.
Ms. Maeda is a Research Fellow at the Center for International and Strategic Studies at the PHP Institute. Ms. Maeda was previously a visiting professor at the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at National Sun Yat-sen University in Taiwan. From 2004-2005 Ms. Maeda was a visiting scholar at the Institute of Contemporary China Studies in China and from 1999-2008 Ms. Maeda was a research associate at the Department of International Affairs at the PHP Institute. Ms. Maeda specializes in security studies, modern China’s diplomacy and international relations in East Asia. Hiroko Maeda has a M.A. in International Politics from Kyoto University.
Mr. Marusaki is currently the Deputy Director of the Strategic Intelligence Analysis Office, Defense Intelligence Division, Bureau of Defense Policy, at Japan’s Ministry of Defense. Before working in the Ministry of Defense he was a Defense Official in the Secretarial Division of the Minister’s Secretariat. In 2010 he was a Third-year Training Program Trainee in the Minister’s Secretariat and in 2009 he was a Defense Official in the Finance Division of the Bureau of Finance and Equipment. Prior to that Mr. Marusaki was a Defense Official in the International Operations Division of the Bureau of Operational Policy. Akira Marusaki has a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Tokyo, an MSc in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science and an MSc in Refugee and Forced Migration Studies from the University of Oxford.
Dr. Masuo is an Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Social and Cultural Studies, Kyushu University currently on leave as a Coordinate Research Scholar at the Harvard-Yenching Institute (Sept 2014 - June 2015). Her research topics include Chinese foreign policy, international relations in East Asia, and Sino-Japanese relations. Before assuming her current position at Kyushu University, she worked for Waseda University as a lecturer, for Professor Ezra F. Vogel (Harvard University) as his research assistant, and for the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) as a research fellow. Chisako Masuo holds a Ph.D from the University of Tokyo.
Mr. Takahashi is a Senior Fellow of the National Institute for Defense Studies and currently with Deputy Director of the Office of Strategic Planning of Ministry of Defense in Tokyo, Japan. Mr. Takahashi has published extensively in the areas of nuclear strategy, the Japan-U.S. alliance, and East Asian regional security including “Implications of Recent Challenges in Nuclear Deterrence on Japan’s Security: NPR, New START, “The World without Nuclear Weapon,” and Extended Deterrence,” Kaigai Jijo, Vol. 58, No. 7/8 (July 2010) (in Japanese); ”Transformation of Japan’s Defense Industry? Assessing the Impact of the Revolution in Military Affairs,” Security Challenges, Vol.4, No.4 (Summer 2008); “Dealing with the Ballistic Missile Threat: Whether Japan Should Have a Strike Capability under its Exclusively Defense-Oriented Policy,” NIDS Security Reports, No.7 (December 2006). Sugio Takahashi has a B.A. and a M.A. from Waseda University and a M.A. from George Washington University.
On 27 April 2015, Japan and the U.S. concluded the new Guidelines for the Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation. This paper will explore the challenges facing the alliance after the revision of the Defense Guidelines. It will examine the evolution of Japanese thought on deterrence as outlined in the 2010 and 2013 National Defense Program Guidelines. It will also assess the strategic implications of China’s military modernization. This paper will conclude by offering possible policy solutions to the challenges facing the U.S.-Japan alliance in maintaining deterrence.
China is further developing its anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, particularly its submarine fleet and cruise missiles launched from land-based aircraft, to defeat an approaching enemy fleet. In addition to developing A2/AD capabilities, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is making concerted efforts to become a blue water navy. However, the PLAN faces some difficult challenges—both geographical and operational—in becoming an ocean-going navy. This paper considers the challenges the PLAN faces in the open ocean and the implications of these challenges for U.S.-Japan alliance cooperation.
This paper analyzes the background of the South China Sea dispute and the extent to which the American rebalance has influenced China's actions in the Sea. Following an assessment of the legal definitions found in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and a look at China's military developments, the paper concludes with a discussion on how the rebalance has failed to prevent China from unilaterally changing the status quo in the South China Sea and looks at ways the rebalance can become more effective in the future.
In 2015, the Project 2049 Institute launched a program to focus on trends in China’s military advancements and how the U.S. and Japan can coordinate closely to maintain the peace and stability that has anchored the Asia-Pacific region’s economic dynamism and growth over the past 60 years. This paper serves as a capstone for the various discussions held over the course of the program in both Washington, D.C. and San Diego.
China’s calculations of its relative political, diplomatic, economic, and military strength will change as conditions in China and the region evolve. Unless compelled to respond to a challenge with direct military action, Beijing likely will attempt to calibrate its actions by continuing to employ a wide array of civilian, government, paramilitary, and military capabilities up to the line of the intentional use of deadly force to achieve its objectives.