Forging Ahead in Space: A Strategic Imperative for Japan and South Korea’s Collective National Security

In an era marked by rapid advancements in technology, the space domain has emerged as a critical battleground for national security. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East illustrate the potential of advanced technologies to reshape warfare dynamics. In Ukraine, space-based electronic warfare capabilities have been effectively employed to disrupt enemy communications and operations. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, information derived from space assets has exacerbated chaos, enabling actors to gain tactical advantages in conflict by disrupting trade and threatening an expanded crisis in the region.

As these conflicts unfold, actors with access to and zealously pursuing advanced technologies also pose a significant threat. China has declared space as a new warfare domain and already demonstrated its ability to destroy satellites using its anti-satellite weaponry, alarming the global community. To add to this concern, China is actively developing robotic arms that can displace satellites from one orbit to another, employing nesting technologies to hide satellites from detection, and launching unidentified payloads on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capable satellites at an increasing rate. Russia has also recognized space as a warfighting domain and understands that space supremacy will be a deciding factor in future conflicts. Russia has been using spoofing and jamming technologies to deceive enemy systems and jam communications and is allegedly developing nuclear space-based anti-satellite weapons. These developments threaten the peace and security of the Indo-Pacific and raise a critical question: what would happen if such technologies were deployed against Japan and South Korea?

This situation is far from hypothetical. North Korea’s burgeoning relationship with Russia, combined with concerns over technology transfers in exchange for munitions and now, soldiers, presents a direct threat to the security of both Japan and South Korea. North Korea’s pursuit of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and deployment of short-range missiles that are challenging to detect in real-time underscore this danger. As Japan and Korea confront the possibility of advanced space technologies being used against them, it has become increasingly clear that they are surrounded by autocratic regimes intent on denying, degrading, and disrupting their capabilities. If adversaries were to actively employ space-based capabilities, Japan and South Korea could find themselves unable to see, unable to hear, and unable to communicate during a crisis in which timely responses are a matter of life and death.

In recent years, Japan and South Korea have begun to improve their bilateral relationship. Initiatives inspired by the spirit of Camp David, led by President Biden, former Prime Minister Kishida, and President Yoon have fostered greater cooperation, including resumption of joint multi-domain exercises and establishment of direct missile data-sharing capabilities, enabled by the United States’ Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS). This missile data-sharing system increases the chance for Japan and South Korea to be alerted and respond within minutes when North Korea launches ballistic missiles into the air. Japan and Korea’s new multi-year trilateral exercise plan with the United States to better prepare against North Korean threats and the development of early warning mechanisms for supply chain security are demonstrations of Japan and Korea overcoming their historical difficulties and stepping towards opportunities to strengthen their relationship as the threat picture continually evolves in the region.

At the foundation of this strengthening relationship is space, a critical domain for national and regional security. Both nations can enhance their collective security posture against potential threats by leveraging their respective advancements in space technology and ambitions for the domain.

Japan has a rich history in space exploration, exemplified by its astronaut joining the next U.S. manned mission as the first non-U.S. astronaut, its participation as the first and only Asian country in the Schiever Wargame, and its commitments to the Artemis Accords. Japan has been active in the space domain for decades through its civilian space agency, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Japan’s Self Defense Force’s space force, also known as the Space Operations Group (SOG). Japan’s robust capabilities and willingness to engage in collaborative space endeavors are reflected in the Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) and H3 rocket.

Similarly, South Korea is making significant strides with the establishment of its first civilian space agency, the Korean Aerospace Space Agency (KASA), the formation of a space force, and the launch of indigenous military reconnaissance satellites. Through a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. and participation in the Artemis Accords, Korea is positioning itself as a key player in the global space arena.

Space domain cooperation has historically been fraught with challenges, primarily due to national security interests and the protection of crown jewel technologies, particularly in space launch capabilities. However, given the shared threats and technological prowess of both countries, it is imperative that Japan and Korea think creatively and move beyond basic scientific exchanges to establish a more collaborative framework in the space domain. By doing so, Japan and Korea can better respond to the threats posed by those who do not play by the rules by improving their abilities to see, hear, and communicate.

Here are three ways to strengthen the orbital defense of Japan, Korea, and in turn, the Indo-Pacific.

One. Harness Artificial Intelligence for national security and space innovation

The collaboration between Japan and Korea in the pursuit of AI technology in the space domain is not only timely but also essential for enhancing national security and advancing innovation. Both nations currently receive processed data from the United States through the SBIRS, but they will face challenges in managing the increased volume of downlink data generated by their reconnaissance efforts. AI can be harnessed to effectively detect, identify, analyze, and neutralize threats more rapidly, especially given the rising frequency of missile launches in the region.

Both Japan and Korea possess robust technological capabilities that uniquely position them for this collaboration. Japan has long been a leader in AI development, excelling in robotics, natural language processing, and machine learning. With significant investments from both the government and private sectors, Japan’s initiatives have aimed to create a super-smart society that leverages AI to enhance productivity and quality of life. South Korea has also rapidly established itself as a powerhouse in AI, supported by government initiatives that encouraged AI integration across various industries. South Korea is at the forefront of AI innovation, developing cutting-edge applications in consumer electronics and telecommunications.

Japan and Korea’s initial AI collaboration can be on data analysis, allowing both countries to see and respond faster to threats. But AI collaboration opportunities are limitless for both countries. AI can aid in autonomous navigation for spacecraft, allowing for real-time decision-making regarding trajectory adjustments and obstacle avoidance; enhance robotic capabilities for planetary exploration, sending AI-powered robots and rovers to perform essential tasks on distant planets; and monitor spacecraft systems through predictive maintenance, anticipating potential failures before they occur. This partnership holds the promise of greater regional stability and opens new frontiers in scientific discovery, making a compelling case for joint investment in AI technology for space.

Two. Explore PNT technology cooperation in Electromagnetic Warfare

Electromagnetic warfare has become a critical element of the battlespace, encompassing a range of tactics that disrupt, disable, and manipulate enemy electronic systems. Tactics include cyberattacks on satellite networks, the incapacitation of vital Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) infrastructure, covert maneuvering of spacecraft, and the disruption of communications. In the Ukraine war, Russia has used tactics such as jamming, spoofing, and hacking of satellite networks to disrupt military operations, and interference with GPS signals has degraded the accuracy of guided munitions and unmanned systems. China has adopted advanced jamming systems to disrupt satellite communications and navigation, including jamming downlinks from imaging satellites and blinding sensors on other spacecraft. In addition, under the umbrella of the newly strengthened partnership between Russia and North Korea, North Korea may gain access to some aspects of this technology. An ongoing evolution in electronic warfare necessitates continuous adaptation and innovation in countermeasures. In the face of emerging threats augmented by advanced space technology, Japan and Korea need reliable access to positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) technology and data.

Japan and Korea are making significant strides with PNT technology. Japan launched the Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS) in 2007 to enhance GPS signal reliability in urban areas. QZSS has been instrumental in advancing Japan’s technological infrastructure, promoting regional connectivity, and supporting various applications, such as precise agriculture for improved crop management, disaster management for timely response, and transportation safety through enhanced navigation for vehicles. Meanwhile, Korea is developing its Korea Positioning System (KPS) with assistance from the United States, aiming to create a domestically controlled navigation network. Although Japan currently possesses greater expertise in GNSS technology, Korea’s development of KPS presents a valuable opportunity for collaboration. Once established, both nations can innovate together on PNT technology, potentially creating more effective deterrent measures against spoofing and jamming, while also exploring the development of offensive capabilities that could enhance national security and regional stability.

Joint efforts to better adapt and defend against adversaries’ evolving space capabilities that threaten their national and regional security are invaluable. Japan and Korea should consider enhancing resiliency by developing integrated PNT systems that exponentially augment GPS signals in the quadrant, establishing alternative PNT systems to defend against traditional GNSS vulnerabilities, and fostering a collaborative posture through joint training and simulations. While the development of these technologies is nascent, both countries can work together to harden their security posture by collaborating at this critical juncture to deter adversaries from degrading and disrupting this essential ability to better see and communicate.

Three. Be collaborative norm setting agents for peaceful and sustainable use of space

As space activities accelerate, there are growing concerns about the peaceful and sustainable use of space. The influx of new and aspiring space-faring nations has intensified the need for clearly defined regulations to prevent the militarization of space. Complicating the situation are the advancements made by China and Russia in space technologies, including maneuvering capabilities and claims of space-based nuclear arms, which could challenge existing normative frameworks for peaceful engagement. China and Russia are also challenging the U.S.-led model of the International Space Station by establishing their own space station. Despite the existence of the United Nations’ Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), there remains a lack of effective enforcement mechanisms to prevent potential escalations or militarized use of space. This lack of binding agreements leaves a regulatory gap that could jeopardize peaceful cooperation and safety in space. Compounding the need for effective norm setting and international cooperation, orbital debris from satellites – functioning and non-functioning – is becoming an increasingly intractable problem. With space becoming overpopulated due to increased launches by state and non-state actors, coupled with a lack of technology available to mitigate the debris this causes, sustainability is at-risk. Overcrowding also increases the chances of accidents and miscalculations between state actors, especially dangerous when tensions on Earth are high between these actors.

Japan has been, and Korea is, emerging as a pivotal actor in the international space domain, with both nations actively contributing to norm-setting for the peaceful and sustainable use of space. Japan, a longstanding member of various international organizations, has developed a reputation for its unwavering commitment to international forums. Japan has strong diplomatic presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands, where it fosters investment and maintains strong regional partnerships. Japan is also active in international and regional space-related forums and has become a respected advocate for a rules-based order and cooperation in space exploration and development. Respect for Japan’s record is demonstrated in choosing a Japanese astronaut to be part of the United States’ NASA Artemis program’s next manned mission to the Moon. Similarly, South Korea under President Yoon Suk-yeol is striving to establish itself as a global pivotal player, significantly increasing its involvement in multilateral forums. South Korea’s recent commitments to advancing space technology and promoting responsible space exploration demonstrate its readiness to take on more influential roles.

Japan and Korea are well-positioned to collaboratively champion new international norms. Both nations recognize the importance of sustainability and are particularly concerned about the problem of orbital debris, which currently lacks effective mitigation technology or adequate international regulation. Jointly advocating for sustainable space initiatives, Japan and Korea could push for innovative debris control measures, create frameworks to regulate satellite proximity and collision avoidance, and promote peaceful military and civilian uses of space. Together, they could be instrumental in establishing an updated, inclusive code of conduct that ensures safe and sustainable exploration, paving the way for a more stable space environment.

In conclusion, the historical challenges between Japan and South Korea may cast a shadow on the prospects for cooperation; however, President Yoon and former Prime Minister Kishida understood the critical cost of inaction. The growing threats in the region, particularly from neighboring autocrats, necessitated redressing historical grievances and forging a new path for Japan and Korea to embark on. As Japan and South Korea confront unprecedented regional security threats, enhancing their space capabilities is a must. Both nations have demonstrated technological prowess and a shared commitment to regional stability, making them well-suited partners in securing the space domain. By collaborating on AI, PNT technologies, and norm-setting for sustainable space use, Japan and South Korea can not only safeguard their national security but also contribute meaningfully to a rules-based global space environment. Together, they can champion a resilient, peaceful, and technologically advanced Indo-Pacific, ensuring their preparedness in a rapidly evolving space landscape. To better see, hear, and communicate, this cooperation is not something to be overlooked.